🔗 Share this article

A decade after the UK entered into a hurried referendum that divided the country and unleashed disorder, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is ready.

That is the message from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.

"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."

New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue

The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.

"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.

"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are resistant to losing and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."

Constitutional Provision

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a referendum.

Insufficient Informed Dialogue

Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the absence of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.

"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the basics. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"

Volume's Strategy

In the book, neither author supports unification or the status quo. Both authors two pieces that seek neutrality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and social statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.

Debates range over identity markers, duties, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and provoke conversation.

"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist good arguments on each side."

Parallel Votes

A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters claim they prefer unification but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.

"The Irish government should work out what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.

Possibility of Public Vote

McBride considers a referendum in his generation is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate points, he stated. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will eventually lose but each side has got valuable insights to acquire from the opposing arguments."

Appeal for More Extensive Debate

Westminster needed to engage with the debate, said the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."