🔗 Share this article An Forecasting Platform Trader Earned $436,000 from Bets on Maduro's Downfall. In this photo illustration, a Polymarket logo is seen displayed on a smartphone. A bettor profited close to $500,000 on the ouster of Nicolás Maduro just before it was officially announced, raising questions about potential gains made from non-public details of the US operation. Market Movement in Wagers Bets placed on the crypto-platform, an online prediction market, that the leader would be removed from office by the month's conclusion rose in the hours before former President Trump announced on January 3rd that the Venezuelan leader had been taken into custody. One account, which joined the platform in December and made four bets, all on the Venezuelan situation, made more than $436K from a starting bet of $32,537. It remains unclear. The anonymous account had only a blockchain identifier for identification. Market Signals Before Public Statement Trading information shows that traders estimated the likelihood of a political change at just a low 6.5 percent in the afternoon of the prior Friday. Yet the odds had increased to 11% by shortly before midnight and spiked dramatically in the early hours of the next day, indicating a rapid movement in betting activity just before the social media post was made. "This particular bet has all the hallmarks of a transaction based on non-public details," commented Dennis Kelleher. A handful of other traders also earned tens of thousands of dollars from similar wagers. Political Attention Grows Some lawmakers are growing concerned. Proposed legislation presented on recently seeks to ban public officials from making trades on prediction markets if they have "insider details" related to a wager. Market Background Event-driven betting sites have become increasingly popular in the past few years, with participants able to wager on everything from elections to political events. The industry were examined under the previous administration. Yet it has found a more favorable environment during the Trump presidency. Insider trading is against the law in the stock market, but there are less oversight in the event betting industry. A spokesperson for Kalshi said their site "has clear rules against such activities of any form."