🔗 Share this article Day-to-Day Killings in the nation Decline Thirty-Seven Percent During Claudia Sheinbaum, Per Government Statistics The typical number of per-day murders each month in Mexico has decreased by 37% since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum took office, per fresh administrative figures. Nevertheless, public safety analysts have warned that homicide numbers might not point to enhanced national stability. Marked Drop in Daily Averages Officials reported an mean of nearly 55 killings a day in November as opposed to roughly 87 when the President assumed the leadership in the previous September. This data was provided by the head of the nation's federal safety agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the president’s daily news conference on a recent Tuesday. “The result in homicides that we’ve had during these past months is extremely important,” Claudia Sheinbaum said, explaining that last month the smallest number of homicides were documented for any November in the last 10 years. Recent Background and Government Strategy Fierce organized crime internal conflicts, coupled with the administration's highly military campaigns to confront the drug gangs, have made Mexico’s homicide numbers rise sharply in the past few years. The figure peaked at a peak of 36,773 killings in 2020, per the nation's official data agency. That resulted in Mexico a homicide figure more than four times higher than the United States. From that point, murders have been on the downward trend, declining to 33,550 the previous year. Claudia Sheinbaum has credited her public safety approach for an apparently steeper drop in killings in the current year. At a news briefing in the summer, the President said: “There is a strategy, there is monitoring of the strategy, and there is specific monitoring municipality by municipality in certain cases. The approach is effective. And we have to continue working at it each day.” The key elements of Sheinbaum’s security strategy include: Bolstering Mexico’s national guard. Improving information gathering and investigation capabilities. Enhanced coordination between various authorities. Analyst Caution and Statistical Limitations But, public safety experts urged caution that relying on murder statistics to assess the situation of peace was misleading. This is especially true given the uptick in different criminal activities such as forced disappearances. “That would be positive news if this was a drop, but I think we can’t just focus on the homicide numbers and think: ‘Oh well, great,’” stated Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an expert on Mexico's organised crime. “I would be guardedly optimistic.” As reported by the public policy analysis thinktank Mexico Evalúa, homicides overall dropped by more than 20% in the initial 10 months of this year versus the same period last year. However, missing persons cases have risen by 15% and in some states have increased by as much as 200%. “Numbers on murders is no longer useful for estimating the context of public insecurity,” said Armando Vargas, a security expert at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have police and investigators who do not have the ability or the inclination to properly recognize and categorize remains. Secondly, organized [criminals] … have the ability to conceal violence through disappearances.” Vargas pointed out that relying on monthly averages of daily homicides was similarly concerning because it might obscure periods when there were particularly elevated levels of murders. “Relying on the daily mean makes high peaks of violence invisible,” he stated. Arrests and Seizures as Metrics of Success Where the government can cite the success of its safety strategy is on arrests and seizures. Close to 40,000 people were arrested between last October and this past November for serious offenses, per government figures. More than 20,000 guns were taken and 311 tons of narcotics intercepted. “Donald Trump can't claim President Sheinbaum of inaction, because in reality she is doing a lot with these many thousands of detentions, many thousands of seizures, and all the operational weakening of criminal groups. It’s very politically profitable,” commented Vargas. Ongoing Violence and Public Frustration But in spite of these measures, Mexico remains plagued by severe violence, with a number of regions in the grip of cartel-driven bloodshed. Last month there was a prominent killing of a well-liked mayor in the region of Michoacan, one of 10 local leaders assassinated in the past 12 months. A short time after, thousands of protesters took to the streets in the capital and across the nation to show their frustration at corruption and drug violence. “The federal government frames [data] in a way to create a picture of safety. From a political standpoint it’s very effective, socially it’s extremely problematic,” Vargas said.
The typical number of per-day murders each month in Mexico has decreased by 37% since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum took office, per fresh administrative figures. Nevertheless, public safety analysts have warned that homicide numbers might not point to enhanced national stability. Marked Drop in Daily Averages Officials reported an mean of nearly 55 killings a day in November as opposed to roughly 87 when the President assumed the leadership in the previous September. This data was provided by the head of the nation's federal safety agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the president’s daily news conference on a recent Tuesday. “The result in homicides that we’ve had during these past months is extremely important,” Claudia Sheinbaum said, explaining that last month the smallest number of homicides were documented for any November in the last 10 years. Recent Background and Government Strategy Fierce organized crime internal conflicts, coupled with the administration's highly military campaigns to confront the drug gangs, have made Mexico’s homicide numbers rise sharply in the past few years. The figure peaked at a peak of 36,773 killings in 2020, per the nation's official data agency. That resulted in Mexico a homicide figure more than four times higher than the United States. From that point, murders have been on the downward trend, declining to 33,550 the previous year. Claudia Sheinbaum has credited her public safety approach for an apparently steeper drop in killings in the current year. At a news briefing in the summer, the President said: “There is a strategy, there is monitoring of the strategy, and there is specific monitoring municipality by municipality in certain cases. The approach is effective. And we have to continue working at it each day.” The key elements of Sheinbaum’s security strategy include: Bolstering Mexico’s national guard. Improving information gathering and investigation capabilities. Enhanced coordination between various authorities. Analyst Caution and Statistical Limitations But, public safety experts urged caution that relying on murder statistics to assess the situation of peace was misleading. This is especially true given the uptick in different criminal activities such as forced disappearances. “That would be positive news if this was a drop, but I think we can’t just focus on the homicide numbers and think: ‘Oh well, great,’” stated Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an expert on Mexico's organised crime. “I would be guardedly optimistic.” As reported by the public policy analysis thinktank Mexico Evalúa, homicides overall dropped by more than 20% in the initial 10 months of this year versus the same period last year. However, missing persons cases have risen by 15% and in some states have increased by as much as 200%. “Numbers on murders is no longer useful for estimating the context of public insecurity,” said Armando Vargas, a security expert at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have police and investigators who do not have the ability or the inclination to properly recognize and categorize remains. Secondly, organized [criminals] … have the ability to conceal violence through disappearances.” Vargas pointed out that relying on monthly averages of daily homicides was similarly concerning because it might obscure periods when there were particularly elevated levels of murders. “Relying on the daily mean makes high peaks of violence invisible,” he stated. Arrests and Seizures as Metrics of Success Where the government can cite the success of its safety strategy is on arrests and seizures. Close to 40,000 people were arrested between last October and this past November for serious offenses, per government figures. More than 20,000 guns were taken and 311 tons of narcotics intercepted. “Donald Trump can't claim President Sheinbaum of inaction, because in reality she is doing a lot with these many thousands of detentions, many thousands of seizures, and all the operational weakening of criminal groups. It’s very politically profitable,” commented Vargas. Ongoing Violence and Public Frustration But in spite of these measures, Mexico remains plagued by severe violence, with a number of regions in the grip of cartel-driven bloodshed. Last month there was a prominent killing of a well-liked mayor in the region of Michoacan, one of 10 local leaders assassinated in the past 12 months. A short time after, thousands of protesters took to the streets in the capital and across the nation to show their frustration at corruption and drug violence. “The federal government frames [data] in a way to create a picture of safety. From a political standpoint it’s very effective, socially it’s extremely problematic,” Vargas said.