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President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine stated that proposals for a ceasefire agreement negotiated with US officials are poised to be finalised in a matter of days. Following this, American envoys are expected to submit the terms to the Kremlin.

Berlin Talks Yield Major Headway, With Critical Obstacles Persist

Following extensive talks in Berlin, American negotiators reported on Monday that around “90%” of the contentious issues between Russia and Ukraine had been settled. Despite this optimistic assessment, the path to ending the conflict is not guaranteed, particularly because Russia's absence from the current dialogue.

In the early hours of Tuesday, the Ukrainian president said that the American legislature is expected to vote on security guarantees and that a finalised set of agreements might be ready “today or tomorrow.” Subsequently, the United States would engage in discussions with Russian representatives, leading to summit-level talks as soon as this coming weekend.

Defense Assurances and Allied Backing

“The plan involves five key agreements. Some of them concern binding security pledges: formally ratified, that is, voted on and endorsed by the US Congress,” Zelenskyy remarked to journalists. He clarified that these assurances would “reflect the collective defense clause” of the Nato alliance.

On Monday, American representatives declined to give precise information regarding the probable makeup of the defense package or what would happen if Moscow attempted to seize more land following an agreement. Officials did confirm that the U.S. has no plans to deploy troops on the ground in Ukraine.

Heads of state from the UK, France, Germany and eight other European countries said in a unified declaration that forces belonging to a “allied coalition” could “help with the regeneration of Ukraine’s forces, in securing Ukraine’s skies, and in supporting maritime security, including through operating inside Ukraine.”

They stopped short, however, of suggesting these measures would serve as assurances matching Nato’s article 5. In any case, there is scant indication that Russia is near agreeing to the kind of arrangement under discussion between Washington and Kyiv.

Kremlin Response and Land Issue

On Tuesday, the Russian government stated it had not seen the details of the proposals on security assurances. Additionally, a senior Russian diplomat, Sergey Ryabkov, asserted that Russia would not agree to troops from NATO member states operating in Ukrainian territory “under any circumstances.”

The main sticking point between the Ukrainian team and their American counterparts continues to be the issue of land. One proposal centers on Ukraine relinquishing the areas of the Donbas it still holds, while the Ukrainian side wants to freeze the lines. “We are discussing the territorial issue. You know, it is a central problem. Currently, there is no agreement on it yet,” the president said after the Berlin talks.

The US negotiation team, led by two senior advisors, has proposed a compromise solution. Under this plan would see Ukraine withdraw, but Russia would not advance, with the resulting zone becoming “an open economic area.” Russia has indicated it could use internal security units instead of the army in such an area, implying it would still seek to maintain authority there.

“Let me reiterate: a ‘special economic zone’ is not controlled by Russia. Not legally or in practice will we recognise Donbas – its currently occupied areas – as Russian. Absolutely,” said Zelenskyy.

Path Forward and Potential Outcomes

It is not clear how Moscow and Kyiv will resolve the land question. The Ukrainian leader has previously suggested that a negotiated arrangement such as a special economic area could be conceivable if the citizens of Ukraine approved it in a referendum. The major impediment is likely to be when the proposals are presented to Russian president Vladimir Putin, who has shown no indication he is willing to compromise on his military objectives.

“If Putin rejects everything, we will end up with exactly what we are encountering on our plane right now – turbulence,” commented Zelenskyy, recording the comments after his plane took off from Berlin.

“I believe the United States will apply sanctions pressure and supply additional armaments if he rejects everything. In my view, that would be a reasonable expectation from Ukraine to the United States,” he concluded.